The line has been crossed. Not metaphorically, not as a warning, but as a scientific and institutional fact now acknowledged by the United Nations itself. The United Nations Environment Programme has confirmed in a new report that humanity is certain to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement the legally binding global treaty that has anchored the world’s climate ambitions for over a decade. And in doing so, UNEP has done something it has never done before: it has moved the language from “unlikely” to “impossible,” stripping away the diplomatic cushioning and delivering the verdict that climate scientists have long feared would eventually have to be spoken plainly.

This is the first time that UNEP has referred to staying beneath the 1.5°C warming limit as impossible rather than unlikely. The executive director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, put it with the kind of bluntness that the moment demands, writing in the report’s foreword that the 1.5°C goal must now be approached from above, meaning that the world will overshoot the threshold and then attempt to work its way back down. It is a sentence that belongs in the vocabulary of damage control, not prevention. The era of preventing the worst has quietly ended. The era of managing it has begun.

The report was not entirely without precedent in the scientific community. In February 2025, a pair of studies published in Nature Climate Change determined that Earth had likely already entered the 20-year period in which global temperatures would exceed 1.5°C. What UNEP has now done is translate that scientific assessment into institutional policy language, the kind that governments, economies, and international bodies are compelled to respond to with plans rather than pledges.

The pathway UNEP is now prescribing is called “overshoot, peak and decline.” To reduce severe threats to human health, food security, water supplies, and more, societies will need to reach net-negative greenhouse gas emissions by not only cutting those emissions, but expanding carbon dioxide removal projects. This means conventional approaches such as reforestation and ecosystem restoration, as well as newer and currently limited technologies such as carbon capture and storage machines and systems that pull carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere and lock it underground. The report described this pathway plainly: “This is by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway. It is simply the best remaining option.”

The scale of what is being asked of the world is staggering. Technologies that remove carbon from the air and store it underground are still limited in scale, and so far, just 12 projects have been successful. To even limit warming to 1.5°C without overshooting a scenario now off the table, the world would need to deploy carbon dioxide removal technologies at rates faster than those seen for solar power, which is far from the current reality. The gap between where the world is and where it needs to be is not a gap that inspires optimism. It is one that demands urgency on a scale that no generation has yet managed to sustain.

There are also hard physical limits to what the planet can absorb even with the best technology humanity can deploy. Scientists aren’t sure Earth’s subsurface could even store the amount of carbon necessary to keep Earth at net-zero emissions, with the report warning that just maintaining net-zero CO₂ emissions could exhaust current estimated storage capacity in sedimentary basins by 2200. And practical obstacles abound large amounts of land would need to be reforested for conventional carbon removal, which could spark conflicts with agriculture, while wildfires, as well as climate change itself, could prevent or damage plant growth.

In order to bring global temperatures back to the 1.5°C mark, Earth’s warming must not exceed 1.8°C. Beyond that mark, cooling Earth back to the 1.5°C level this century becomes increasingly challenging. Without urgent action, the breaching of dangerous tipping points in Earth systems, such as irreversible changes to ice sheets or the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will become more likely, paired with growing human and ecological suffering.

“We need stronger political will,” Andersen wrote. “Decisions taken now and in the next few years will determine whether viable options remain to reverse warming towards 1.5°C.”

For Nigeria and the broader African continent, regions that have contributed the least to global carbon emissions historically but stand to suffer the most acutely from rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, coastal flooding, and agricultural collapse, this report is not an abstraction. It is a forecast of the conditions under which millions will try to farm, find water, build cities, and survive. The 1.5°C target was never just a number. It was a promise that the world made to its most vulnerable people. That promise, the UN has now confirmed, has been broken. What happens next depends entirely on whether the world can find, in the wreckage of that broken promise, the will to do what it failed to do when doing so was still the easier option.

The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, has accused Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of creating the political crisis rocking the state and attempting to blame him for its fallout.

Wike said AbdulRazaq pushed three senators and several members of the House of Representatives out of the All Progressives Congress (APC) political arrangement, only to accuse him of sponsoring them after some found accommodation in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“He has been the one championing this campaign against me everywhere. I mean the Kwara State Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, and I have confronted him about it,” Wike said.

“You removed three senators; you removed members of the House of Representatives. You must be a super governor to survive that.

“Strategically, if you try to remove all these people, you have a crisis in your hands, and you have to be very, very careful.”

The crisis took a dramatic turn with the defection of Kwara Central Senator Saliu Mustapha from the APC to the PDP, where he subsequently emerged as the party’s senatorial candidate.

Mustapha’s defection, alongside the exit of other prominent APC figures, has rattled the political establishment in Kwara and significantly altered calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.

Wike questioned what AbdulRazaq expected the displaced politicians to do after shutting them out of the APC, saying they could have joined the ADC or NDC, where their support for President Bola Tinubu could not be guaranteed.

“These senators you removed, you have no place for them. Therefore, did you prefer them to go to ADC or to go to NDC, which is opposing Mr President fervently?” he asked.

Wike said rather than appreciate that the politicians joined a PDP tendency still supporting Tinubu, AbdulRazaq had resorted to portraying him as the mastermind of opposition against his government.

“The Governor of Kwara State now takes this propaganda to their own level, saying that Wike is now sponsoring a candidate in Kwara because I am supporting Saraki,” he said.

Wike dismissed the allegation, insisting that his support for Tinubu did not mean the PDP would stop fielding candidates against the APC.

“Did I have any agreement that now that we are supporting Mr President, PDP will not have any candidate anywhere?” he asked.

The Federal Government incurred a gross electricity tariff subsidy obligation of N1.928 trillion in 2025, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

The figure represents the amount required to bridge the gap between cost-reflective electricity tariffs and the lower rates approved for customers.

According to NERC’s 2025 industry report, the subsidy obligation represented 57.44 per cent of the total Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) invoice, averaging about N160.69 billion per month.

Subsidy Burden Declined Slightly

Despite the huge financial burden, the 2025 figure was slightly lower than the N1.949 trillion recorded in 2024.

NERC reported that the subsidy obligation stood at:

– N536.40 billion in the first quarter

– N514.36 billion in the second quarter

– N458.76 billion in the third quarter

– N418.79 billion in the fourth quarter

The quarterly figures show a gradual decline in the subsidy obligation as the year progressed.

Why Electricity Subsidy Remained High

NERC attributed the subsidy burden largely to the Federal Government’s policy of maintaining approved customer tariffs even as the cost of supplying electricity increased.

Because tariffs paid by many consumers remained below cost-reflective levels, the government was required to absorb the difference.

The commission said the gradual decline in the subsidy obligation was partly driven by lower energy off-take by electricity distribution companies (DisCos) and a higher proportion of electricity being allocated to Band A customers.

More Electricity Allocated to Band A

NERC disclosed that the share of energy allocated to Band A customers increased from 40 per cent to 45 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Band A customers are those expected to receive significantly longer daily electricity supply than customers in the lower service bands.

The shift in energy allocation formed part of efforts to improve the commercial performance of electricity distribution and encourage better service delivery.

DisCos Billed N2.99trn, Collected N2.32trn

NERC also reported significant collection challenges within the distribution segment of the electricity market.

The 11 DisCos collectively billed customers N2.988 trillion in 2025 but collected only N2.319 trillion, leaving an outstanding balance of approximately N669.49 billion.

The resulting collection efficiency stood at 77.60 per cent.

Eko DisCo recorded the highest collection efficiency at 87.90 per cent, closely followed by Ikeja DisCo at 87.89 per cent, while Kaduna DisCo recorded the lowest at 45.68 per cent.

Financial Pressure on Power Sector

The combination of tariff subsidies and collection inefficiencies continues to place pressure on the finances of Nigeria’s electricity market.

NERC warned that weak liquidity in the sector could limit the ability of market participants to invest in infrastructure and expand electricity supply.

The latest figures therefore highlight the continuing challenge of balancing affordable electricity tariffs for consumers with the need to ensure that electricity providers receive enough revenue to operate sustainably.

With the government absorbing more than N1.9 trillion in tariff shortfalls in 2025, the future of electricity pricing and subsidy policy remains a major issue for Nigeria’s power sector.